Investing in robust defensive structures, enhancing military capacity, and executing targeted strikes on Russian opportunities are crucial for Ukraine’s military survival in 2024 and resurgence in 2025.

Currently, Ukraine faces severe strain, primarily due to delays in foreign assistance and a shortage of local personnel. Conversely, Russia's military power is on the rise, bolstered by technological advancements in electronic warfare and support from nations like China, Iran, and North Korea. The Russian military presence in and around Ukraine is estimated at 500,000 troops, and their defense spending has surged to 10.8 trillion rubles, accounting for approximately 6% of their GDP.

Moreover, Russia has shifted its economy to a war-oriented model, channeling a significant portion of its energy export revenues into military mobilization, which necessitates a prolonged conflict to sustain its economic framework. As of May 13, 2024, Russia is not only making slow advances but appears to be gaining ground in multiple locations along the front lines.

Even the typically optimistic Ukrainian leadership is acknowledging the dire situation, with senior officials expressing concerns about the challenges ahead. Reports indicate that Russian forces are capturing territory near Kharkiv with minimal resistance, highlighting a troubling lack of defensive measures in certain areas.

Commander Denys Yaroslavskyi has noted that Russian troops have advanced into Ukrainian territory without encountering significant opposition, suggesting either negligence or corruption in defense preparations. While the West had anticipated Russia's offensive intentions towards Kharkiv, the ongoing conflict is anything but stagnant. If a tailored Western strategy focused on defense and strategic strikes isn't implemented, Ukraine risks further setbacks.

Realistically, Ukraine cannot launch large-scale offensives in 2024 due to shortages in artillery, personnel, and equipment. Additionally, the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. elections could significantly impact Ukraine’s support, especially if aid is halted under a new administration.

Despite these challenges, Ukraine has the potential to rebuild its combat capabilities in 2024, positioning itself as a substantial threat to Russia by 2025 with adequate Western support.

Defense

Establishing a strong defensive line can significantly diminish Russian military effectiveness. Historical precedence shows that defenders typically hold an advantage, as evidenced by Ukraine's attempts to breach the Surovikin line. A comprehensive "defense-in-depth" strategy, akin to the Russian approach along the extensive front line, should be prioritized.

This strategy entails creating multiple layers of defensive fortifications, including trenches, barbed wire, and tank traps, along with air support capabilities that can strike at enemy vehicles attempting to breach defenses. While Russian forces have specialized engineering brigades for fortification, the responsibility in Ukraine lies with individual maneuver brigades. Ukraine has had some success in channeling Russian forces into vulnerable areas using minefields and artillery.

Nonetheless, a cohesive defense strategy must be orchestrated at a higher level to ensure effective coordination with local authorities and address private land issues. Although Ukraine faces manpower shortages, engaging the civilian population to construct defenses away from the front lines could be beneficial. Additionally, foreign assistance from NATO engineering teams could enhance these efforts, though this depends on the West's willingness to escalate involvement.

At minimum, Ukraine should focus on fortifying the most vulnerable five areas against Russian advances before reallocating resources to quieter regions. The deployment of new F-16 Falcons for defensive operations could provide crucial support in contested areas.

The F-16s would enable close air support for ground troops, suppress enemy air defenses, and enhance missile and air defense capabilities, all of which are vital for maintaining territorial integrity.

Resource Consolidation

Previously, Ukraine has adeptly combined Western, Soviet-era, and commercial equipment to form a versatile military force. However, this diverse array of assets, including various artillery types and mixed tank models, leads to logistical complexities. NATO standardization exists for a reason: having multiple versions of the same weapon complicates maintenance and readiness.

To improve sustainability, international collaboration is essential for keeping Western equipment operational. This includes not only servicing equipment in Ukraine but also training Ukrainian personnel to maintain it independently. While some progress is being made, a significant increase in these efforts is necessary.

Furthermore, Ukraine must implement a sustainable rotation policy for its troops. Currently, some units have been deployed for over a year without breaks. Regular rotations would improve troop morale and effectiveness, addressing a broader mobilization challenge.

It’s crucial to impose age limits for mobilization, as many soldiers are over 40, which may hinder their combat effectiveness. Ideally, battalions should rotate in and out of active duty every four to six months while preserving experienced personnel for training new recruits.

Finally, ongoing training in fundamental soldiering skills is essential. While Ukrainian soldiers possess considerable combat experience, a focus on basic skills is necessary to maintain operational effectiveness as more experienced soldiers advance in ranks.

Targets of Opportunity

Ukraine should not adopt a purely defensive stance in 2024. Instead, it must capitalize on opportunities to strike at Russian targets behind the front lines. This involves utilizing long-range systems like ATACMS and drones to target critical Russian infrastructure, including oil facilities, the Kerch Bridge, and supply depots.

Identifying targets that would most significantly undermine Russian combat effectiveness is vital. Ukraine has become increasingly skilled at locating and tracking enemy assets, likely aided by Western intelligence.

Now is the moment for Ukraine to initiate a campaign of long-range strikes, applying pressure on Russian resources and highlighting the repercussions of their actions. With an influx of Western military aid expected soon, this support could help mitigate recent Russian tactical gains.

Once some stability is achieved, Ukraine can reassess its strategy for 2024, laying the groundwork for larger offensive operations in 2025. This conflict demands long-term strategic planning, as Putin is clearly committed to a protracted engagement, forming alliances with nations like Iran, North Korea, and China against the West.

These strategies must be implemented now, ahead of the 2024 U.S. elections, to ensure Ukraine is well-positioned for success, regardless of future U.S. support.