Navigating the Intersection of War and Climate Change
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Chapter 1: The Personal Perspective on Conflict and Climate
My workspace is positioned in front of a window with an open glass door, allowing a gentle summer breeze to flow through. Occasionally, I find myself captivated by the breathtaking Patagonian scenery, characterized by its snow-capped peaks and tranquil lake waters.
I consider myself fortunate. Despite Argentina's unfortunate status as one of the top three nations with the highest inflation rates globally, my environment remains relatively peaceful. A secure job keeps my thoughts centered on more immediate concerns like water, food, shelter, and tranquility, all of which are plentiful here.
In stark contrast, individuals residing in conflict zones are not only subjected to the brutalities of war but are also ensnared in the dire realities of the climate crisis. It is telling that 14 out of the 25 nations most at risk from climate change, as per the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative, are plagued by ongoing turmoil, which significantly hampers their ability to tackle environmental issues. Among these are the Central African Republic, Sudan, Afghanistan, Somalia, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, while Argentina sits at a more moderate 71st position. Notably, Palestine is absent from this ranking, even as the Gaza Strip faces a perilous convergence of armed conflict and a deteriorating climate crisis.
While a direct link between climate change and warfare may be elusive, countries engulfed in conflict grapple with a dual crisis, where internal violence severely restricts their capacity to address the cascading effects of climate change. The climate crisis, in turn, intensifies existing tensions, turning resource disputes into explosive confrontations, perpetuating a vicious cycle.
Even with the recent four-day truce—an uncertain pause in hostilities—the violence in Gaza continues to target a population that is increasingly vulnerable.
> The interconnectedness of climate change and armed conflict is evident, demonstrating how one exacerbates the other.
Section 1.1: Global Patterns of Climate Crisis and Conflict
The combined effects of climate change and conflict extend beyond mere displacement, straining resources and heightening tensions.
A 2020 report from the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) highlights the extensive devastation wrought by the intertwined repercussions of war and climate change. For instance, instability in the Sahel and Lake Chad regions has driven cattle herders and farmers into the Central African Republic in search of greener pastures, further complicating a nation already marred by over six decades of instability and severe food insecurity.
In Darfur, northwest Sudan, severe desertification occurred in the late 1990s and early 2000s as the Sahara expanded southward at a rate of one mile per year. This drastic environmental change resulted in a significant reduction in annual rainfall and divided the region into two distinct populations: Arab nomadic pastoralists in the north and ethnic African agriculturalists in the south.
The conflict in Somalia has also compounded the challenges faced by a country already highly vulnerable to climate change. A UN report from July 2023 revealed that over 3.8 million individuals in Somalia have been displaced due to a combination of conflict, drought, and flooding, leading to increased land disputes and tensions among returnees.
Similarly, the war between Ukraine and Russia has highlighted the relationship between armed conflict and food insecurity, affecting global wheat and sunflower supply and driving food prices higher.
As the ICRC points out, over 80% of conflicts occur in biodiversity hotspots, which are crucial for the survival of numerous plant and animal species. The degradation of these environments contributes to climate change while undermining a community's ability to adapt.
The first video, "When Great Power Conflict and Climate Action Collide," explores how geopolitical tensions complicate global climate efforts, emphasizing the interconnected nature of these crises.
Chapter 2: The Reality of Climate Change in Conflict Zones
The global temperature surpassed 2°C above pre-industrial levels for the first time on November 17, 2023. The following day confirmed this alarming trend. The ERA5 data indicated a surface air temperature reaching 2.07°C above the pre-industrial average.
This critical moment largely went unnoticed as the world's focus remained on the atrocities unfolding in Gaza.
Urgently, a prolonged ceasefire is necessary in Gaza due to the humanitarian disaster at hand. However, the relentless rise in global temperatures cannot continue to be overshadowed by ongoing conflicts. With 2023 projected to be the warmest year on record, immediate action is essential.
The IPCC has called for a 50% reduction in emissions within the next six years, yet the lingering conflict between Israel and Palestine stands as a significant barrier to global climate action. The region is warming at twice the global average rate, with significant projections for increased sea-level rise and more frequent extreme weather events.
The second video, "The War in Gaza: What Does It Mean for the Greater Middle East," discusses the broader implications of the conflict in Gaza on regional stability and climate concerns.
The situation in Gaza has been dire even before the recent escalation of violence on October 7. International organizations had already raised alarms regarding the deteriorating infrastructure and sanitation conditions affecting its 2.2 million residents, confined within just 365 square kilometers.
In comparison, my hometown of Bariloche, which is nearly twice the size of Gaza, accommodates around 146,000 people, resulting in a population density that is ten times lower than that of Gaza. The primary vulnerability in Gaza stems from ongoing conflict, but the climate crisis—marked by rising temperatures and increasing sea levels—exacerbates these challenges.
Intense flooding has already wreaked havoc in Gaza, damaging infrastructure and displacing residents. With limited resources to cope with such disasters, the local population faces a precarious existence.
An MIT study suggests that by 2100, average annual precipitation may decrease by up to 30%, alongside a projected temperature increase of 3 to 5 degrees Celsius, affecting agricultural productivity and food security. The political conflict further complicates water access, with stark disparities in consumption rates between Israelis and Palestinians.
The repercussions are severe, with over 660,000 Palestinians lacking sufficient water access, and in Gaza, the situation is even graver, with estimates indicating residents may have access to as little as 3 liters per day for all needs.
The drying rivers and warming seas threaten the viability of aspirations for freedom and stability in Palestine, leaving residents with nowhere to escape the dual crises of climate change and conflict.
Section 2.1: Climate Action Amidst Conflict
Addressing climate change necessitates significant societal and economic transformation, which is especially challenging in conflict zones where survival takes precedence. The devastation of war extends beyond the visible destruction, affecting economic stability and societal cohesion.
Despite being among the most climate-vulnerable nations, conflict-ridden areas face considerable funding shortfalls for climate initiatives, as their weakened institutions struggle to secure necessary resources.
As the ICRC seeks to bolster Gaza's resilience, they are exploring solutions such as establishing independent water points. However, for a population grappling with survival amid bombardments, prioritizing long-term strategies remains a daunting challenge.
With COP28 set to commence on November 30, the world is expected to gather to address these crises, but the context is fraught with conflicts of interest, particularly given the involvement of the UAE's Sultan Al Jaber, who has been criticized for using the summit to promote oil trade.
In the midst of geopolitical tensions, the urgency of climate change continues to escalate, evidenced by alarming occurrences such as extreme weather events and ecological degradation. The intertwined crises of war and climate change remind us of the unsustainable nature of the status quo, demanding immediate systemic change.
The imperative for global leaders to act decisively has never been clearer, as the planet continues to deteriorate under the weight of our fossil fuel dependence.
The message is unmistakable: we must confront these challenges head-on to avert a self-inflicted apocalypse.
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